![]() ![]() ![]() In uncertain situations, some unhappy surprises are inevitable even to good decision makers. That said, even the soundest decision-making processes cannot guarantee good outcomes. (2007) assumed that, across time, people, and decisions, good decision processes would predict good decision outcomes on average. The approach to DOI scoring in Bruine de Bruin et al. (2007), we found that people who did better on hypothetical decision tasks (as seen in high A-DMC scores) also experienced better real-world decision outcomes (as captured by the DOI score). The overall DOI score reflects avoiding more negative decision outcomes, such that higher scores reflect better performance. Most items were preceded by screening questions (have you ever had a credit card?), establishing the possibility of experiencing a bad outcome if a poor decision were made (have you ever had $5000 in credit card debt?). We used a 10-year time frame to allow time for severe, and relatively uncommon, events to happen. The DOI was patterned after “life events” scales, which assess individuals' overall life stress through their self-reports of life events found to have adverse consequences ( Masten et al., 1994 Brady and Matthews, 2002). They range from serious (e.g., declared bankruptcy) to minor (e.g., got blisters from sunburn). The DOI elicits self-reports of outcomes that could result from poorly made decisions. We then validated performance on A-DMC against a composite score of decision outcomes as self-reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI), which can be accessed through the online Decision-Making Individual Differences Inventory 1. We first developed a composite measure of Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC), using a set of hypothetical decision tasks drawn from behavioral decision research. (2007), we adopted complementary strategies for assessing decision-making competence and outcomes with adults. Moreover, decision-making competence has been improved as a result of targeted decision education among high-school students ( Jacobson et al., 2012). Other research has also linked performance on decision-making competence tasks to various cognitive abilities (e.g., Stanovich and West, 2000, 2008 Peters et al., 2006 Finucane and Gullion, 2010 Del Missier et al., 2012, 2013), need for cognition and other cognitive styles (e.g., Carnevale et al., 2011 Smith and Levin, 1996), less regret ( Parker et al., 2007), and fewer suspensions among students ( Stanovich et al., 2003). We found good construct validity, a pattern that has borne up in a unique longitudinal data collection effort that followed the sample for 11 years ( Parker et al., 2014). In Parker and Fischhoff (2005), we examined whether adolescents who did better on commonly used laboratory decision tasks also did better on presumptive precursors and consequences of good decision-making. The hope is that tasks designed to capture fundamental properties of those decisions will predict real-world decision performance and outcomes. As an experimental science, behavioral decision research uses laboratory settings deliberately isolated from everyday decisions. However, examination of these real-world decision outcomes is rare. Behavioral decision research aims to understand how people make decisions, with the ultimate goal of improving experienced decision outcomes. ![]() Throughout their lives, people face decisions that affect their finances, health, and overall quality of life. We discuss the usefulness of DOI as a measure of successful real-world decision-making. Most outcomes are significantly more likely among people with lower A-DMC scores, even after taking into account two variables expected to produce worse real-world decision outcomes: younger age and lower socio-economic status. The present analyses go beyond the initial work, which focused on the overall DOI score, by analyzing the relationships between specific decision outcomes and A-DMC performance. The DOI score reflects avoidance of outcomes that could result from poor decisions, ranging from serious (e.g., bankruptcy) to minor (e.g., blisters from sunburn). One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI). Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. 4Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.3Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.2Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.Parker 1 *, Wändi Bruine de Bruin 2,3 and Baruch Fischhoff 3,4 ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |